A must-hit-by progressive is a jackpot that is guaranteed to pay before its meter reaches a stated ceiling. Because the meter only grows as people play and resets after a win, the same spin is worth more when the meter is near the ceiling than right after a reset. That is the whole idea, and it is one of the few places a slot machine carries visible state from one player to the next.
The four numbers that matter
- Must-hit amount. The ceiling on the sign, such as $500. The jackpot drops somewhere between the reset and this amount.
- Reset amount. Where the meter starts after a win, such as $250.
- Meter speed. How much money played moves the meter by one cent. A slow meter means more spins to climb the same distance.
- Base-game return. The share of money wagered the rest of the game pays back, for example 87%. The progressive adds to that.
Why a high meter helps, and where it stops helping
If the jackpot is equally likely to drop anywhere between now and the ceiling, the expected prize is about the midpoint of those two amounts. The cost is the money you expect to play through before it drops, and every dollar played loses the house edge of the base game. Walking in when the meter is low means paying a lot of edge for a prize that isn't much bigger than a reset. Walking in near the ceiling means paying a little edge for a prize that is already large.
The break-even entry is the meter value where those two sides are equal. Below it the expected return is under 100%. Above it, the return climbs quickly.
A worked example
Take Reel Rainbows' right-hand jackpot: it resets at $250, must hit by $500, moves one cent per $2 played, with an 87% base game. Using the SlotMaps calculator, which models the jackpot as dropping at the midpoint of the remaining range:
- Meter at $260: expected return about 88.6%, with about $24,000 of play expected before the jackpot drops. Not a spot to sit.
- Meter at $400: about 91.5%, with about $10,000 of play expected. Still below break-even.
- Meter at $480: about 111.5%, with about $2,000 of play expected. Above break-even.
The break-even entry for this game works out to about $463. Those are model outputs for one game, not predictions for a session, and each machine has its own numbers. The other presets in the calculators (Coin Kingdom, Really Wicked Winnings, River Dragons) show how far apart the break-even points can be.
What this does not mean
A return above 100% is an average over many sessions at the same spot. One session can lose all its stake, and another player can win the jackpot while you are watching. Size the bankroll to the expected play, not to the jackpot, set a loss limit first, and leave when the meter drops. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Where to look next
- Buffalo Power Pay and Phoenix Link: progressives with their own calculators.
- Can you beat slot machines? The wider picture of advantage play.
- All 360+ machine guides.
Frequently asked questions
What does must-hit-by mean on a slot machine?
The jackpot is guaranteed to be won before its meter reaches a stated ceiling. A sign on the machine shows the ceiling, for example 'must hit by $500', and the prize can drop at any point below it.
Is a must-hit-by progressive a good bet when the meter is high?
Only past a break-even point, and that point depends on the game. Below it, the extra cost of the spins you'd need to reach the jackpot is larger than the jackpot is worth. Above it, the expected return is higher than the base game's, which is still a long-run edge and not a promise for any one session.
How do you work out the break-even meter on a must-hit-by?
You need four numbers per game: the must-hit amount, the reset amount, how much money played moves the meter by one cent, and the base-game return. The SlotMaps must-hit-by calculator takes those and returns the expected return at the current meter value and the break-even entry point.
Does a must-hit-by guarantee that I will win the jackpot?
No. The jackpot is guaranteed to be won by somebody, not by you. Another player can take it while you are playing, and you can leave a session behind even when you did everything right. You must be 21 or older to play.